Analysis of Long-term Care Insurance Demand of Megalopolis in China under the Background of Aging of Population—Take Shanghai as an Example†

China's aging has the characteristics of getting older before getting rich, growing rapidly, and having a large population base.As of the end of 2018, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of people above 65 in China is 165.65 million, accounting for 11.94% of the total population.Among them, the old-age dependency ratio is 16.8%, which means that every 100 working population in China needs to support 16.8 old people.The aging disability phenomenon in China's mega-cities represented by Shanghai is particularly serious.According to the data compiled from the Shanghai Sixth Census Bulletin, the disability rates of the 60-80-year-olds in Shanghai are 5.0275%, 14.8139%, and 32.7914%, the severe aging trend has promoted the demand for elderly care.Judging from the current development of the pension system in China, although the elderly, the disabled, and the need for care for diseases are extremely high, there is no directly compatible policy system and corresponding insurance products, the supporting facilities for elderly care need to be resolved urgently.Firstly, China's social security system is not perfect.Although the medical insurance of the five social insurances can solve the reimbursement of patients' medical expenses, most of the conditions that are not reimbursable are the exclusion of nursing and rehabilitation treatment expenses, that is, the expenses of nursing after the patient is discharged are not involved.Secondly, the supply of commercial nursing insurance products in China is in short supply.The major illness insurance in the current commercial insurance, its claims are mainly illness treatment and loss of income, etc., as a supplement to current social insurance, it also has limitations.On the one hand, there is a threshold for the payment of critical illness insurance.If the insured does not meet the payment conditions, commercial insurance companies