Coordinated reduction of CO2 emissions and environmental impacts with integrated city-level LEAP and LCA method—a case study of Jinan, China

Abstract The evaluation of the efficiency and feasibility of energy transition and air pollution control at the city level is one of the key points in addressing environmental problems and achieving the goals of CO2 emission reduction and carbon neutrality in China. In this study, an integrated method is developed on the basis of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and life cycle assessment (LCA). The energy demands and environmental co-benefits in Jinan, one of the low-carbon city pilots in China, are quantitatively evaluated under three policy scenarios: low-carbon (LC) policy scenario, pollution control (PC) policy scenario, and deep-level cut of CO2 emissions (DCC) scenario from 2016 to 2050. From 2016 to 2030, the PC policies would be more powerful than the LC policies in terms of energy demand decrease. From 2030 to 2050, the LC policies would be more efficient than all the other policies. Promoting energy-saving buildings in the LC scenario would contribute to the continual decline in energy demands. In the DCC scenario, CO2, PM2.5, PM10, CO, NOX and SO2 emissions would decline by more than 71.4% relative to the records in 2016. Global warming potential, human toxicity potential, photochemical ozone creation potential, particulate matter formation potential, and acidification potential would also decrease by 81.8%–88.5%. On the basis of the integrated city-level LEAP and LCA method, this study quantifies the various environmental impacts of urban decarbonization policies and provides science-based references for urban low-carbon transformation.