#426 “Predict-PD”: a machine learning tool to predict patient survival in peritoneal dialysis patients

Abstract Background and Aims With the rising prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), particularly among the elderly, the need for effective renal replacement therapy has become increasingly crucial. Peritoneal dialysis (PD), recognized as a gentler alternative to haemodialysis, offers advantages in cognitive preservation and overall quality of life. Patient survival on PD, a tangible outcome measure, gains particular importance, especially in an aging demographic confronting end-stage kidney disease. Predicting survival thus becomes vital in facilitating individualized treatment planning and has implications on resource allocation and patient counseling. Method Our study analysed data from the UK Renal Registry and included 22 711 incident dialysis patients choosing PD between 2007 and 2022. Our objective was to employ Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms in developing an advanced risk stratification indicator with high predictive capabilities, specifically tailored for use in the United Kingdom's transplant selection procedure. We conducted experiments using three distinct machine learning models and evaluated their performance in terms of calibration and discrimination, utilizing metrics such as the integrated Brier score (IBS) and Harrell's concordance index. We assessed the potential clinical utility using decision curve analysis. Results The XGBoost model demonstrated excellent predictive efficacy for patient survival, with a concordance of 0.78. Further scrutiny revealed AUC values at 1 year (0.81), 3 years (0.78), and 5 years (0.77). The integrated Brier score, a comprehensive measure of predictive accuracy, was 0.09. There was no statistical difference between the actual and predicted survival probabilities (P = 0.72). Decision curve analysis accentuated the model's clinical applicability. Conclusion This study illustrates the potential of machine learning in prognosticating patient survival in PD, offering a pathway towards individualized patient-centric management in nephrology. The findings advocate for the integration of data-driven methodologies in clinical decision-making, paving the way for enhanced personalized care in CKD management and can serve as a guide for future research.