Strategic PV expansion and its impact on regional electricity self-sufficiency: Case study of Switzerland

Solar photovoltaics (PV) will play an important role in decarbonising the energy system. To date, most assessments of PV transition pathways focus on least-cost aspects, without neither considering the time needed to achieve a substantial PV deployment, nor the impacts on regional electricity supply equality. In this work, we propose two alternative PV expansion strategies for Switzerland: The first strategy prioritises the most productive roofs and reaches national PV targets by exploiting the minimum number of rooftops, while the second strategy aims at maximising regional self-sufficiency as proxy of PV supply equality. Both strategies are assessed for several PV expansion scenarios using real hourly PV potential data for the entire Swiss building stock. The scenarios are compared to hourly electricity demand profiles for the residential and service sector. Results suggest that when employing the first strategy, at least 46% of suitable rooftops – mostly large roofs with low tilt angles – are needed to reach Switzerland's 2050 PV expansion target of 35 TWh. For the projected electricity demand in 2050, this leads to annual electricity self-sufficiency in about 40% of Swiss districts. This percentage can be increased to over 70% by following strategy two to maximise self-sufficiency – which may feature several economic and societal advantages – at the cost of covering 86% of suitable rooftops with PV. The findings may support policy makers and local utilities to find efficient and equitable pathways for a decentralised PV expansion, while at the same time reaching the ambitious national renewable energy targets within due time.