Using the InVEST-PLUS Model to Predict and Analyze the Pattern of Ecosystem Carbon storage in Liaoning Province, China

Studying the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of carbon storage, balancing land development and utilization with ecological protection, and promoting urban low-carbon sustainable development are important topics under China’s “dual carbon strategy” (Carbon emissions stabilize and harmonize with natural carbon absorption). However, existing research has paid little attention to the impact of land use changes under different spatial policies on the provincial-scale ecosystem carbon storage. In this study, we established a carbon density database for Liaoning Province and obtained the spatial and temporal distribution of carbon storage over the past 20 years. Then, based on 16 driving factors and multiple spatial policies in Liaoning Province, we predicted land use and land cover changes (LUCC) under three scenarios for 2050 and analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and response mechanisms of carbon storage under different scenarios. The results showed that (1) LUCC directly affected carbon storage, with a 35.61% increase in construction land and a decrease in carbon storage of 0.51 Tg over the 20-year period. (2) From 2020 to 2050, the carbon storage varied significantly among the natural trend scenario (NTS), ecological restoration scenario (ERS), and economic priority scenario (EPS), with values of 2112.05 Tg, 2164.40 Tg, and 2105.90 Tg, respectively. Carbon storage in the ecological restoration scenario exhibited positive growth, mainly due to a substantial increase in forest area. (3) The spatial pattern of carbon storage in Liaoning Province was characterized by “low in the center, high in the east, and balanced in the west”. Therefore, Liaoning Province can consider rationally formulating and strictly implementing the spatial policy of ecological protection in the future land planning so as to control the disorderly growth of construction land, realize the growth of ecological land area, effectively enhance carbon storage, and ensure the realization of the goal of “dual carbon strategy”.