经济
房价
库存(枪支)
抵押品
股票价格
适应性预期
计量经济学
价值(数学)
动力学(音乐)
理性预期
微观经济学
货币经济学
金融经济学
财务
系列(地层学)
工程类
物理
古生物学
机器学习
生物
机械工程
计算机科学
声学
作者
Jengei Hong,Doojin Ryu
摘要
Abstract We examine the characteristics of housing markets under adaptive and heterogeneous expectations. Model agents have finite horizons, and their borrowings are constrained by the collateral value of housing stock. Our model shows that expectation‐driven housing price dynamics constantly change the direction of movement. The steady‐state process of housing prices follows an endogenous oscillation process, and the magnitude of the cycles can be amplified by external shocks. Our quantitative results imply that (i) short‐term positive and long‐term negative serial correlations in housing price changes are inherent, (ii) house prices and expected house price movements are positively correlated, and (iii) fluctuations in housing prices are not fully explained by fundamentals.
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