Baseline Hepatitis B Virus Surface Antigen Titers in Childhood Predict the Risk of Advanced Liver Fibrosis in Adulthood

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) is a marker of both HBV covalently closed circular DNA and integrated HBV genome, whereas the HBV core-related antigen (HBcrAg) indicates the transcriptional activity of covalently closed circular DNA. This study examined the relationship between HBsAg and HBcrAg titers in childhood and advanced fibrosis in adulthood.We recruited 214 initially hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic HBV-infected patients who were followed for a total of 6371 person-years. None of the patients were co-infected with hepatitis C or D virus. Serum HBsAg and HBcrAg titers were assessed at 10 and 15 years of age. Transient elastography was performed at a mean final age of 38.21 years to identify advanced fibrosis.Patients with advanced fibrosis in adulthood had a higher rate of genotype C HBV infection and a higher HBsAg titer at 10 and 15 years of age (P = .003, P = .03, and P = .005, respectively). The HBcrAg titer was not correlated with advanced fibrosis (P > .05). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that HBsAg cutoffs of >4.23 and >4.44 log10 IU/mL at 10 and 15 years of age, respectively, best predicted advanced fibrosis in the fourth decade of life (P = .001 and P < .001, respectively). In a multivariate analysis, both an HBsAg titer >4.44 log10 IU/mL at 15 years of age and HBV genotype C were predictors of advanced fibrosis (odds ratios, 15.43 and 4.77; P = .01 and P = .02, respectively).HBsAg titers in childhood predict the progression to liver fibrosis in adulthood.