Axial length changes in progressive and non-progressive myopic children in China

Due to pubertal development and crystalline lens compensation, axial length (AL) continues to increase among non-progressive myopic children (absolute annual spherical equivalent (SE) progression less than 0.25 diopter), but the amount is unknown. This study was to investigate the cutoff of AL change to accurately differentiate between progressive and non-progressive myopes.A total of 8,546 myopic and treatment-naive children aged 6-10 years were enrolled from two cohort studies. AL with optical biometer and cycloplegic SE with auto refraction were evaluated at baseline and annually. Annual AL change was calculated, and the percentiles of annual axial elongation among progressive and non-progressive myopes were estimated by quantile regression with restricted cubic spline. Area under receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUROC), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were applied to evaluate the accuracy of predicting progressive and non-progressive myopes.Among 8,546 myopic children, 603 (7.06%) were non-progressive myopes. Annual AL changes among non-progressive myopes remained stable with the median annual change being 0.25 mm, while the median for progressive myopes decreased with age from 0.58 to 0.42 mm. AUROC for distinguishing between non-progressive and progressive myopes was 0.88 and was > 0.85 for each age group. Annual AL change, the cutoff of 0.20 mm/year, had significantly high PPV and NPV in predicting progressive myopes with high proportion of progressive myopes and non-progressive myopes with low proportions of progressive myopes.Myopic children with non-progressive status had markedly less axial elongation than progressive ones. AL changes with cutoff of 0.20 mm/year could differentiate between non-progressive and progressive status and may be an alternative for evaluating progressive status.