Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions and Ecosystem Service Values in Xinjiang Based on LUCC

This study is based on time-series land use data of Xinjiang from 2000 to 2022. Using grid tools, bivariate autocorrelation models and other methods, we systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of land use and ecosystem service value. The results show the following: Firstly, from 2000 to 2022, Xinjiang’s LUCC exhibits differentiated evolution characteristics: cropland, forestland, and built-up land expanded continuously, while the areas of grassland and unused land showed a steady reduction trend, and the area of water bodies showed a fluctuating growth pattern. Secondly, according to the calculation of carbon emissions from LUCC in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2022, the carbon emissions from LUCC have increased significantly, from 27.79 million tons in 2000 to 226.43 million tons in 2022, with built-up land being the main source of carbon emissions, but the continuous reduction in grassland area has led to the weakening of carbon sequestration capacity. Thirdly, from 2000 to 2022, Xinjiang’s ESV shows a fluctuating upward trend, increasing from 1880.528 billion yuan in 2000 to 1894.198 billion yuan in 2022, with grassland and water area being the core contributors to ESV, accounting for over 80% of the total contribution. Fourthly, in terms of spatial distribution, there is an overall negative correlation between the intensity of carbon emissions from LUCC and the intensity of ESV, mainly aggregated as “low–low” and “low–high”, with “high–low” aggregation primarily distributed in the desert areas of the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin and “low–high” aggregation concentrated in the marginal mountainous areas and oasis regions of Xinjiang. The findings provide a solid scientific basis for the optimization of land use structure, the achievement of carbon emission reduction targets, and the protection of ecosystems in Xinjiang and similar arid regions worldwide.