A Comparison of Various Electricity Tariff Price Forecasting Techniques\n in Turkey and Identifying the Impact of Time Series Periods

It is very vital for suppliers and distributors to predict the deregulated\nelectricity prices for creating their bidding strategies in the competitive\nmarket area. Pre requirement of succeeding in this field, accurate and suitable\nelectricity tariff price forecasting tools are needed. In the presence of\neffective forecasting tools, taking the decisions of production, merchandising,\nmaintenance and investment with the aim of maximizing the profits and benefits\ncan be successively and effectively done. According to the electricity demand,\nthere are four various electricity tariffs pricing in Turkey; monochromic, day,\npeak and night. The objective is find the best suitable tool for predicting the\nfour pricing periods of electricity and produce short term forecasts (one year\nahead-monthly). Our approach based on finding the best model, which ensures the\nsmallest forecasting error measurements of: MAPE, MAD and MSD. We conduct a\ncomparison of various forecasting approaches in total accounts for nine teen,\nat least all of those have different aspects of methodology. Our beginning step\nwas doing forecasts for the year 2015. We validated and analyzed the\nperformance of our best model and made comparisons to see how well the\nhistorical values of 2015 and forecasted data for that specific period matched.\nResults show that given the time-series data, the recommended models provided\ngood forecasts. Second part of practice, we also include the year 2015, and\ncompute all the models with the time series of January 2011 to December 2015.\nAgain by choosing the best appropriate forecasting model, we conducted the\nforecast process and also analyze the impact of enhancing of time series\nperiods (January 2007 to December 2015) to model that we used for forecasting\nprocess.\n