The Spatiotemporal Correlation between Human Activity Intensity and the Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value in the Songnen Plain, China

For the main grain-producing areas worldwide that balance multi-tasks of grain production, ecological protection, and economic development, quantitatively revealing the correlation between human activity intensity (HAI) and ecosystem service value (ESV) is conducive to formulating adapted ecological protection policies and promoting the coordinated development of the regional economy, society, and ecosystem. In this paper, we took the Songnen Plain of China as an example, employed a modified Equivalent Factor Method (integrating socio-economic data, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land use data), and the HAI Assessment Model (based on the data of land use, night-time light, and population spatial distribution) to measure the ESV and HAI in the Songnen Plain of China for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. We further applied the standard deviational ellipse method, the coupled coordination degree model, and the bivariate spatial autocorrelation models to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics and correlation characteristics of ESV and HAI. The results showed the following: (1) Temporally, the ESV declined from 950.96 billion yuan in 1990 to 836.31 billion yuan in 2015, and then increased to 864.60 billion yuan in 2020, with the total loss attributed to the significant decline in the ESV of the natural ecosystem. Spatially, the ESV in the western and northeastern regions was relatively high, with a significant increase in the northeast. (2) HAI showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2020, while the high HAI levels gradually shrank after reaching the peak in 2000. Low HAI levels were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest, aligning with the ecological space, while high HAI levels were distributed in the middle and southeast. (3) The interaction between ESV and HAI was marked by a negative correlation, transitioning from conflict to coordination. The spatial pattern of HAI and ESV showed H (HAI)-L (ESV) and L-H clustering, with H-H and L-L scattered distributions. This study contributes to providing a framework, methods, and suggestions for the sustainable planning and utilization of land and ecological protection in order to offer scientific references for the Songnen Plain, other major grain-producing areas, and related studies.