Incidence of Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Veterans With Noncirrhotic Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Fatty Liver Disease

Background and Aims: Despite the high prevalence of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), the long-term incidence of cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among adults with MAFLD is not well described. Using a national cohort of United States Veterans, we evaluated the overall incidence and predictors of cirrhosis and HCC among adults with noncirrhotic MAFLD. Methods: Data from the 2010 to 2022 Veterans Affairs database were used to identify adults with noncirrhotic MAFLD using established definitions. Five and 10-year incidence of cirrhosis and HCC were assessed and stratified by demographics and relevant clinical variables. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were utilized to determine predictors of cirrhosis and HCC. Results: Among 969,253 patients with noncirrhotic MAFLD (94.5% males, 70.2% non-Hispanic white, mean age of 62.7 ± 12.2 y), the 10-year incidence of cirrhosis and HCC was 3.70% (95% CI: 3.66-3.74) and 0.69% (95% CI: 0.67-0.70), respectively. When stratified by race/ethnicity, the 10-year incidence of cirrhosis was lowest among Asians (2.63%, 95% CI: 2.37-2.88) and highest among Hispanics (4.60%, 95% CI: 4.45-4.75), a pattern also observed with HCC. Significant disparities in risk of cirrhosis or HCC were observed when stratified by sex, substance use, and comorbidities. Risks of cirrhosis and HCC were highest in patients with baseline fibrosis-4 >2.67. Conclusion: This large study provides important epidemiological data describing the natural history of adults with MAFLD. Disparities in risk of cirrhosis and HCC were observed by demographic and clinical characteristics, emphasizing the importance of early identification of MAFLD with modifiable high-risk features to implement earlier interventions to improve long-term outcomes.