A supply chain digital twin for resilience analysis under immediate and long-term disruptions: a case study in plastic parts’ manufacturing

A generic supply chain digital twin (SCDT) framework is presented for managing both long and short-term risks in multi-echelon supply chains which is then applied in a plastic manufacturing supply chain. To boost the system's performance and increase the supply chain's flexibility in the face of a prolonged economic crisis, the preferred recovery strategy is selected. Then, the system's resilience is assessed under a set of potential immediate and long-term disruption scenarios. The findings indicate that the selected recovery strategy demonstrates the resilience in the face of economic crisis under the short-term disruptions. However, the challenges are intensified when multiple long-term crises occur simultaneously. Specifically, the intersection of persistent economic downturns with prolonged pandemic crises like COVID-19 poses a substantial risk to the supply chain. In such scenarios, there is a risk of supply chain collapse; therefore, it is essential to implement a combination of resilience strategies – such as adding backup inventory and increasing production capacity – tailored to the specific nature and type of the supply chain to mitigate risks and enhance resilience. Furthermore, detailed analyses conducted by SCDT can assist policymakers in formulating optimal reactive policies for recovery, enabling a more effective response to prolonged and overlapping crises.