Global burden of oral disorders with projections over the next 30 years

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to provide an updated assessment of the global, regional, and national burden of oral disorders from 1990 to 2021, and forecast trends for the next 30 years. METHODS: Data on incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases(GBD) 2021. The changing trends in the burden of oral disorders and subtypes were estimated using percentage change. The Nordpred model based on the age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the burden of oral disorders over the next 30 years. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, all oral disorders exhibited a 35.54% incidence, reaching 3.74 billion cases. Regional analysis revealed that Tropical Latin America and Southeast Asia had higher age-standardized incidence rates(ASIR). Dental caries in permanent teeth increased by 6.0% in the ASIR, while deciduous teeth caries declined by 7.83%. Periodontal disease incidence surged by 76.32% to 89.6 million cases, with discrepancies between sexes-1.05% decrease in males and a 1.14% increase in females. Edentulism incidence rose dramatically by 93.56%, totaling 26.5 million cases. Projections for the next 30 years suggest a continued rise in oral disorder cases, with the ASIR expected to rise, particularly in periodontal diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The rising global burden of oral disorders, notably periodontal diseases, remains a significant public health challenge. Factors such as poor oral hygiene and disparities in healthcare access might contribute to these trends. Targeted preventive measures, including community education and alongside partnerships between researchers and policy-makers, are crucial for mitigating their impact on public health. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Our study examines the increasing global impact of oral diseases from 1990 to 2021 and predicts their trajectory over the next 30 years. We analyzed data on how often these conditions occur and the years of healthy life lost due to them. Overall, we found that oral disorders affected an alarming 3.74 billion people by 2021, with regions like Tropical Latin America and Southeast Asia showing particularly high rates. Notably, dental cavities in adult teeth grew by 6%, while those in children's teeth declined. However, gum disease and tooth loss saw significant increases-gum disease cases shot up by over 76%, with a notable rise among women. Looking ahead, we expect more people to suffer from oral disorders, particularly gum disease. This is a serious issue for public health, possibly driven by factors like poor dental care and unequal access to services. Addressing this requires focused efforts, such as educating communities and improving access to dental care, alongside collaboration between researchers and health officials to lessen the burden of these conditions on people's lives.