Life Cycle Economic and Environmental Assessment for Emerging Heavy-Duty Truck Powertrain Technologies in China: A Comparative Study of Battery Electric, Fuel Cell Electric, and Hydrogen Combustion Engine Trucks

Amid ambitious net-zero goals and growing demands for freight logistics, addressing the climate challenges posed by the heavy-duty truck (HDT) sector is an urgent and pivotal task. This study develops an integrated HDT model by incorporating vehicle dynamic simulation and life cycle analysis to quantify energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and total cost of ownership associated with three emerging powertrain technologies in various truck use scenarios in China, including battery electric, fuel cell electric, and hydrogen combustion engine trucks. The results reveal varying levels of economic suitability for these powertrain alternatives depending on required driving ranges and duty cycles: the battery electric for regional-haul applications, the hydrogen fuel cell for longer-haul and low-load driving conditions, and the hydrogen combustion engine to meet high power requirements. The GHG mitigation potential of these technologies, on the other hand, critically hinges on energy sources. All three powertrains could achieve over 55% GHG emission reductions if the power sector and hydrogen supply are substantially decarbonized by 2035. The analysis underscores the necessity for a broad policy approach on a life cycle basis to incorporate all powertrain technologies and all energy sources in a complementary manner for facilitating a low-carbon road freight future.