Extending performance and evaluating risks of PV systems failure using a fault tree and event tree approach: Analysis of the possible application

Performance and reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems are important issues in the overall evaluation of a PV plant and its components. While performance is connected to the amount of energy produced by the PV installation in the working environmental conditions, reliability impacts the availability of the system to produce the expected amount of energy. In both cases, the evaluation should be done considering information and data coming from indoor as well as outdoor tests. In this paper a way of re-thinking performance, giving it a probabilistic connotation, and connecting the two concepts of performance and reliability is proposed. The paper follows a theoretical approach and discusses the way to obtaining such information, facing benefits and problems. The proposed probabilistic performance accounts for the probability of the system to function correctly, thus passing through the complementary evaluation of the probability of system malfunctions and consequences. Scenarios have to be identified where the system is not functioning properly or at all. They are expected to be combined in a probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) based approach, providing not only the required probability, but also being capable of giving a prioritization of the risks and the most dominant scenario associated to a specific situation. This approach can offer the possibility to highlight the most critical parts of a PV system, as well as providing support in design activities identifying weak connections.