Intra- and interannual streamflow variations of Wardha watershed under changing climate

Management of river water is an important aspect governing the political and economic affairs of any country. Owing to varied climatic conditions, the flow of river water needs to be altered to meet the increasing demands of agriculture and human needs for the designing and executing of water resource projects. The purpose of the study is to investigate the variations in streamflow of Wardha watershed, India, under changing climatic conditions. Regional climate models (RCMs) data with representative concentration pathway (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate the streamflow for the historic and future periods with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2) of SWAT calibration and uncertainty program (SWAT-CUP) was used for sensitive analysis, calibration and validation of the SWAT model. SWAT-simulated streamflow for the future period has been analyzed by dividing the total period into four 20-year spans: 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099. The results suggest a decrease in future streamflow compared to earlier periods. Intra- and interannual variabilities of streamflows for the future periods are less variable compared to the observed streamflow.