Evolutionary mechanisms and multi-scenario projections of China’s food security resilience: A system dynamics approach

Focusing on the complex dynamic risks confronting China's food systems, strengthening the resilience of food security constitutes a cornerstone for safeguarding national food security and social stability, while propelling the high-quality modernization of agriculture. This study develops a three-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing "resilience performance-adjustment-enhancement" to systematically quantify the evolutionary trajectory of China's food security resilience from 2013 to 2022 using a system dynamics model, and projects policy intervention effects for 2023–2033 through multi-scenario simulations. Key findings reveal: (1) A systematic upward trajectory in China's food security resilience index (FSRI), surging from 0.256 to 0.796 during 2013–2033, primarily driven by the synergistic interplay of policy guidance, industrial upgrading, and factor inputs; (2) Policy simulations demonstrate that investment-oriented policies yield the most pronounced enhancement efficacy, elevating FSRI to 0.818 by 2033, though singular policy interventions exhibit constrained resilience-boosting effects; (3) An integrated policy portfolio synergizing investment-driven initiatives, technological innovation, and green transition strategies could elevate FSRI by 4.3% compared to non-intervention scenarios by 2033, with resilience performance metrics surging 16%, thereby validating the efficacy of the "whole-chain resilience construction" theoretical framework. Methodologically, this research establishes an integrated "assessment-simulation-decision" analytical paradigm, confirming that resilience enhancement necessitates coordinated optimization of short-term efficacy and long-term sustainability. The framework not only provides policymakers with quantitative evidence for multidimensional policy synergy but also advances the governance paradigm shift from passive risk mitigation to proactive systemic adaptation through rigorous deconstruction of food security system complexities.