A maximal overlap discrete wavelet packet transform coupled with an LSTM deep learning model for improving multilevel groundwater level forecasts

Abstract Developing precise groundwater level (GWL) forecast models is essential for the optimal usage of limited groundwater resources and sustainable planning and management of water resources. In this study, an improved forecasting accuracy for up to 3 weeks ahead of GWLs in Bangladesh was achieved by employing a coupled Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network-based deep learning algorithm and Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Packet Transform (MODWPT) data preprocessing. The coupled LSTM-MODWPT model’s performance was compared with that of the LSTM model. For both standalone LSTM and LSTM-MODWPT models, the Random Forest feature selection approach was employed to select the ideal inputs from the candidate GWL lags. In the LSTM-MODWPT model, input GWL time series were decomposed using MODWPT. The ‘Fejér-Korovkin’ mother wavelet with a filter length of 18 was used to obtain a collection of scaling coefficients and wavelets for every single input time series. Model performance was assessed using five performance indices: Root Mean Squared Error; Scatter Index; Maximum Absolute Error; Median Absolute Deviation; and an a-20 index. The LSTM-MODWPT model outperformed standalone LSTM models for all time horizons in GWL forecasting. The percentage improvements in the forecasting accuracies were 36.28%, 32.97%, and 30.77%, respectively, for 1-, 2-, and 3-weeks ahead forecasts at the observation well GT3330001. Accordingly, the coupled LSTM-MODWPT model could potentially be used to enhance multiscale GWL forecasts. This research demonstrates that the coupled LSTM-MODWPT model could generate more precise GWL forecasts at the Bangladesh study site, with potential applications in other geographic locations globally.