An assessment of the doses received by members of the public in Japan following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant

The earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011, centred off the east coast of Japan, caused considerable destruction and substantial loss of life along large swathes of the Japanese coastline. The tsunami damaged the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP), resulting in prolonged releases of radioactive material into the environment. This paper assesses the doses received by members of the public in Japan. The assessment is based on an estimated source term and atmospheric dispersion modelling rather than monitoring data. It is evident from this assessment that across the majority of Japan the estimates of dose are very low, for example they are estimated to be less than the annual average dose from natural background radiation in Japan. Even in the regions local to Fukushima Daiichi NPP (and not affected by any form of evacuation) the maximum lifetime effective dose is estimated to be well below the cumulative natural background dose over the same period. The impact of the urgent countermeasures on the estimates of dose was considered. And the relative contribution to dose from the range of exposure pathways and radionuclides were evaluated. Analysis of estimated doses focused on the geographic irregularity and the impact of the meteorological conditions. For example the dose to an infant's thyroid received over the first year was estimated to be greater in Hirono than in the non-evacuated region of Naraha, despite Hirono being further from the release location. A number of factors were identified and thought to contribute towards this outcome, including the local wind pattern which resulted in the recirculation of part of the release. The non-uniform nature of dose estimates strengthens the case for evaluations based on dispersion modelling.