The hollowing out of rural china at the micro level: A case study of three traditional villages in southern Anhui province

The vacancy of traditional dwellings not only signifies the abandonment of buildings and cultural decline but also reflects population outflow and the weakening of rural industries. This issue poses a significant threat to the survival of traditional villages, impacting local communities, cultural heritage preservation, and the sustainable development of rural areas. To comprehensively analyze the factors contributing to traditional dwelling vacancy, this study examines architectural, demographic, and economic determinants through micro data regression analysis. The key findings are as follows: (1) Over 50 % of traditional dwellings in the three villages of southern Anhui are vacant, primarily due to population outflow and industrial decline resulting from a shortage of young labor. (2) Architectural factors influence vacancy risk: Spatial composition and maintenance status play a significant role, with houses that include additional structures and courtyards being less likely to be abandoned. Moreover, self-repair efforts by resident’s help maintain usability and mitigate long-term vacancy, underscoring the necessity for targeted renovation policies. (3) Drivers of population outflow and industrial decline: The transition to off-farm employment is a primary factor contributing to the shortage of young labor. Employment opportunities and household income structure directly influence migration decisions, particularly among young individuals. As rural economies become less dependent on agriculture, an increasing number of people seek urban jobs, further accelerating industrial decline and rural aging. Addressing these challenges necessitates economic diversification and the enhancement of local industries. (4) Mediating role of population outflow: While shortages of young labor do not directly cause housing vacancies, they function as a mediating factor through population outflow. The greater the loss of young workers, the higher the risk of dwelling vacancy, underscoring the interconnectedness of demographic shifts and rural decline. (5) Importance of villager participation: Although traditional dwelling renovation projects exist in the three villages, active villager participation is essential for long-term sustainable development and urban-village integration. Policies should empower residents by providing financial and technical support while fostering community-driven initiatives. Strengthening villagers’ sense of ownership promotes cultural heritage preservation, social cohesion, and economic resilience, ensuring that rural sustainability becomes a community-led effort rather than an externally imposed solution.