领结
过程(计算)
计算机科学
贝叶斯网络
动态贝叶斯网络
工艺安全
工程类
工艺系统
系统工程
在制品
人工智能
运营管理
工艺工程
电信
天线(收音机)
操作系统
作者
Nima Khakzad,Faisal Khan,Paul Amyotte
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.psep.2012.01.005
摘要
Abstract Among the various techniques used for safety analysis of process systems, bow-tie (BT) analysis is becoming a popular technique as it represents an accident scenario from causes to effects. However, the BT application in the dynamic safety analysis is limited due to the static nature of its components, i.e. fault tree and event tree. It is therefore difficult in BT to take accident precursors into account to update the probability of events and the consequent risk. Also, BT is unable to represent conditional dependency. Event dependency is common among primary events and safety barriers. The current paper illustrates how Bayesian network (BN) helps to overcome these limitations. It has also been shown that BN can be used in dynamic safety analysis of a wide range of accident scenarios due to its flexible structure. This paper also introduces the application of probability adapting in dynamic safety analysis rather than probability updating. A case study from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board has been used to illustrate the application of both BT and BN techniques, with a comparison of the results from each technique.
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