Methodologies of Estimating the Impact of Severe Weather on Airspace Capacity

Accurate predictions of reductions in airspace (sector) capacity due to weather are needed to make effective Traffic Flow Management (TFM) decisions. Sector capacity is dependent on the complexity of the traffic flows within the sector, as well as the presence or absence of hazardous weather. It is well-accepted that the sector capacity must be reduced when an area of severe weather overlaps part of the sector. However, no accepted algorithms for calculating the capacity under severe weather impact have been developed. This paper discusses the three proposed methodologies, which translate 2D sector weather coverage, 3D weather avoidance altitude field coverage, and flow-based available sector capacity ratio to sector capacity reduction.