Resilience in Cyclicality: Impact of Inventory Management Efficiency on Operational Profitability

ABSTRACT The cyclical and non‐cyclical nature of the consumer goods industry presents unique dynamics that require discernment in analyzing working capital (WC). These firms often deal with considerable inventory levels that create costs and liquidity challenges, particularly during economic downturns. This paper investigates the impact of inventory days (InvD) on operating margin (OM) in both demand‐stable and demand‐sensitive businesses. The empirical analysis employs system GMM regression with a sample of publicly traded US consumer goods firms from 2010 to 2022. The findings reveal an inverted U‐shaped relationship between InvD and OM among cyclical companies, indicating that these firms require a comparatively lower optimal inventory level (108 days) to maximize profitability at 3%. The results highlight the importance of strategic inventory management (IM) under varying economic and demand conditions and balancing the risks of stock‐outs against the costs of overstocking to optimize profitability. This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of inventory dynamics on operating profit in stable and volatile markets. It estimates the optimal inventory level that enhances profitability and predicts the optimal inventory dynamics for maximum profit.