The impact of the US–China trade war on Taiwanese firms' R&D investment and outward investment to technologically advanced countries

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the impending relationship between the impact of the US–China trade war on Taiwanese firms' spending on R&D and their offshore investment in technologically advanced countries (TAC), the authors examined if changes in these firms' R&D ratios and the growing presence of skilled workers in Taiwan's labour market during the trade war have affected their offshore investments in TAC. Design/methodology/approach Using a model built on pooled cross-sectional time-series data from 2012–2019, the authors examined whether a change in R&D ratios of domestic firms in Taiwan and the growing presence of skilled workers in Taiwan's labour market have affected the offshore investment by these firms during the trade war. Using data from the Manpower Utilisation Survey, the authors applied differences–in–differences–in–differences and differences–in–differences–in–differences–in–differences estimation methods and found that the trade war indeed gave a boost to Taiwan's job market, particularly for skilled workers. Findings From the estimation results, the authors noticed a rise in employment opportunities alongside a decline in the earnings of skilled workers in industries where more firms have spent on R&D as well as invested in offshore operations. However, firms in Taiwan that had not heavily spent on R&D from industries where investment in foreign operations was otherwise high have also attracted skilled workers during the trade war. Practical implications An in-depth analysis of the impact of the trade war on domestic firms' spending on R&D and their investment in offshore operations in TAC should be helpful to policymakers interested in understanding the effects of the trade war and subsequent changes in firms' spending on R&D on labour market outcomes. If changes in the R&D ratios and a steady supply of skilled workers influenced the outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to TAC, this insight could be helpful for those devising policies and measures to curb the impact of the trade war on domestic spending on R&D. Originality/value The study findings not only provide broad lessons to policymakers in Taiwan, but the country case study can guide growing economies that are equally careful while perceiving trade war as a significant deterrent to domestic R&D spending and the outflow of FDI.