More use or cleaner use? Income growth and rural household energy-related carbon emissions in central China

Rural household income growth may have two counteracting effects on energy-related carbon emissions, by stimulating total energy consumption and by changing the energy structure towards low-carbon energy sources. This study aims to provide more insight into this relationship for the case of rural central China, a region where coal-fired electricity dominates modern energy consumption. Based on survey data collected in 2019, energy-related carbon emissions (ECE) and energy-related carbon intensity (ECI) per unit of energy are calculated. A mediation effect model is employed to distinguish between energy structure changes and total electricity consumption as mediating factors in the income growth – carbon emission relationship. We argue that whether biomass fuels are treated as either carbon-intensive or as carbon neutral has major consequences for the analysis. When biomass fuel is treated as carbon-intensive, income-related changes in energy structure and electricity consumption have opposite effects on ECE, but both are conducive to the reduction of ECI. When biomass fuel is treated as carbon-neutral, the positive effect of growth in coal-fired electricity consumption on ECE is much larger than the negative effect of the change in energy structure. Based on these findings, we present several recommendations for balancing two main targets of China's rural revitalization vitalization policy, i.e. rural household income growth and the transition towards low-carbon energy sources in China.