Epidemic Trends and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Hepatitis B in China: Surveillance Study

Abstract Background Hepatitis B is an important public health challenge facing China. Understanding the long-term epidemiological trends and evolving spatial distribution patterns is critical for optimizing prevention strategies and achieving the World Health Organization’s 2030 hepatitis elimination targets. Objective This study aimed to explore the epidemic trends and spatial distribution characteristics of hepatitis B in China from 2004 to 2020. Methods This study used data on hepatitis B incidence from 2004 to 2020 from the China Public Health Science Data Center to analyze the time trend of hepatitis B incidence by joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age, period, and cohort effects of hepatitis B onset. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of hepatitis B in China. Results From 2004 to 2020, China reported a total of 17,449,842 cases of hepatitis B, with an average annual incidence rate of 76.30/100,000. The incidence of hepatitis B in China showed an increasing trend from 2004 to 2007, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 9.49 (95% CI 2.12-17.39), and a decreasing trend from 2007 to 2014, with an AAPC of −3.77 (95% CI −5.93 to −1.55). The incidence of hepatitis B in China tended to be stable from 2014 to 2020, with an AAPC of −0.46 (95% CI −2.86 to 2.01). Age, period, and cohort effect significantly affect the incidence of hepatitis B. The age effect showed that the incidence rate of hepatitis B reached its peak at the age of 22 years, with an average incidence rate of 176.173/100,000. The period effect showed that the highest level during the study period occurred during 2004‐2006. The cohort effect showed that the risk of hepatitis B increased first and then decreased, with the turning point of 1924‐1974. The incidence of hepatitis B varies significantly among regions. The incidence in the northeast and northwest regions has decreased, that in the south and southwest regions has increased, and that in other regions has remained stable. Conclusions China has achieved remarkable results in the prevention and control of hepatitis B, but there are still differences in the incidence rate among different age groups and regions. These results suggest the need to further strengthen the identification and screening of high-risk populations and promote supplementary adult hepatitis B vaccination. Future intervention strategies should fully consider regional differences, implement precise intervention measures based on the epidemic trends and spatial distribution characteristics of each region, optimize resource allocation, and enhance the overall effectiveness of hepatitis B prevention and control.