Future time perspective and well-being: the pitfalls of ecological fallacy and social relationship scoring

Abstract Objectives Socioemotional selectivity theory argues that a limited future time perspective (FTP) drives older adults to prioritize emotionally meaningful goals, such as interaction with close partners, thereby enhancing well-being. However, empirical studies on the relationship between FTP and well-being have yielded contradictory results. This study examines whether the controversy arises from erroneous cross-level inferences and failure to distinguish social relationship scoring types. Methods Data were drawn from 5 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 2011–2020; n = 16,694). Two indicators of well-being, depressive symptoms and life satisfaction, were assessed. Using multilevel mediation models, the study explored the associations between FTP, social relationships (absolute and relative), and well-being at 3 levels: within-individual, between-individual, and between-cohort. Results Limited FTP was consistently associated with higher depressive symptoms across levels and with lower life satisfaction at the within- and between-individual levels, but higher life satisfaction at the between-cohort level. It was also linked to a stronger preference for close relationships at the within-individual and between-cohort levels—driven by declining peripheral ties in the former and increasing close ties in the latter—but this preference did not enhance well-being. At the between-individual level, parallel reductions in both relationships left preference unchanged but decreased well-being. Discussion We found partial evidence of Simpson’s Paradox: limited FTP was linked to lower life satisfaction and reduced close relationships at the individual level, but the opposite at the cohort level. Enhancing interactions with both close and peripheral partners could help improve well-being.