Modeling soybean cultivation suitability in China and its future trends in climate change scenarios

Soybean is an important source of oil and vegetable protein and plays a key role in agricultural production and economy. A suitability evaluation of soybean cultivation is important for identifying potential soybean planting areas. Based on the raster data of soybean harvest ratio (FSHA) and climate-soil-topography-socio-economy environmental factors, we used MaxEnt to simulate the soybean planting suitability and potential distribution in China and the future trends of soybean cultivation under climate change. Three shared socio-economic paths (SSPs) that set up in the future climate section were considered, including SSP126 (sustainable path), SSP245 (intermediate path), and SSP585 (fossil fuel dominated development path). The result shows that the suitability of soybean cultivation was primarily influenced by elevation, precipitation of warmest quarter, capacity of the clay fraction, slope, portion of primary industry, topsoil gravel content, mean diurnal temperature range and accumulated temperature ≥10 °C. High-suitability and moderate-suitability area are respectively 26.51 Mha and 41.93 Mha in China. High-suitability areas for soybean are mainly concentrated in the Northeast Plain, the North China Plain and the northern parts of the middle and lower Yangtze River plain. There were many provinces with high soybean planting potential but low development degrees, including Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Tianjin, Jilin, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hubei and Shaanxi. From 2021 to 2060, the total area highly and moderately suitable for soybean cultivation is projected to increase first and then decrease under both SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. However, it shows a continued upward trend under SSP585, the rising part accounting for more than 10% in the base of historical data. Specifically, under SSP585, the suitability grade in most parts of Northeast China (eastern Inner Mongolia, northern Heilongjiang and western Jilin and Liaoning) will have a general promotion, opposite to the result under SSP126. Moreover, parts of southwest China (Yunnan, Chongqing, northern Guizhou and eastern Sichuan) may be more suitable for soybean cultivation in both scenarios. This study provides a practical reference for current and future soybean planting layout and relative countermeasures.