European football club market value and sporting performance: the moderating effect of player transfers, fans engagement and coaching changes

Purpose This paper investigates the relationship between sporting performance and the market value of European football clubs, with a particular focus on the moderating effect of player transfers, fan engagement and coaching changes. Design/methodology/approach Using a Cross-Sectional Augmented Auto Regressive Distributed Lagged Model (CS-ARDL), we analyze a decade of data (2013–2023) from fourteen prominent clubs across ten European leagues. Findings Our findings confirm a strong positive correlation between sporting performance and market value in European football clubs. Furthermore, the research reveals that strategic player transfers and high fan engagement significantly amplify the positive impact of on-field success on a club's valuation. Interestingly, coaching changes do not exhibit a significant moderating effect on this relationship. Research limitations/implications These findings carry significant economic implications for the football industry, underscoring sporting success as not only a driver of economic growth and social development but also a vital source of funding for clubs seeking to further invest in talent, infrastructure and fan engagement initiatives. Originality/value This study makes a novel contribution to the existing literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of the intricate relationship between sporting performance, market value and the moderating roles of player transfers, fan engagement and coaching changes within the European football landscape. Moreover, the research offers unique insights into investor behavior and the factors influencing investment decisions, enriching our understanding of the complex dynamics driving the football market.