Local development, national strategies, and territorial restructuring in China: an empirical study based on the EHA logistic method

China’s administrative division adjustments (ADAs) reallocate resources and power under a unitary centralized structure. Using national-level data for 2001–2017, this study analyzed the likelihood of ADAs of counties or county-level cities through the events of history analysis method (EHA). The results revealed that county-level local economic factors (value added by first industry, value added by second industry, fiscal revenue, and urban fixed-asset investments) and particularly national strategic factors (promotion of city-regions, frontier location, strategic initiative location) significantly predicted adjustments. The findings verified that economic factors account for ADAs. Additionally, the strategies for creating city regions are a major motive for ADAs. ADAs were performed as spatial strategies in privileged areas to realize national goals for cities, city clusters and frontiers. Governments try to accomplish national strategies and promote spatial governance capacities by territorial urbanization and rescaling administrative power, which crystallizes the practice of state spatial selectivity. However, national spatial strategies should balance efficiency with equality among regions, meaning that the logics of different ADA types differ. Our study enriches the theory of territorial urbanization and contributes to the existing literature by providing a quantitative analysis and thick descriptions of factors facilitating the reconfiguration of state space in China.