Two-year clinical follow-up enhances the diagnosis of early-stage hip osteoarthritis: data from check cohort

To provide a set of diagnostic criteria for early-stage hip osteoarthritis (OA) in primary care, using signs and symptoms monitored over 2 years in individuals with hip pain and/or stiffness. Additionally, the study aimed to see whether these factors were additive to factors based on baseline signs and symptoms only. Data of the 543 persons with 735 symptomatic hips were collected from the prospective Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee cohort study. Using data from 5 to 10 years of follow-up, 24 experts (13 general practitioners, 11 secondary care physicians (6 rheumatologists and 5 orthopaedic surgeons)) inspected individuals' medical data on the presence of clinically relevant hip OA. Their diagnoses are used as reference standards. Backward selection method was used to provide models using the factors from baseline to 2 years of follow-up. Additionally, new models were combined with previously published models, using same selection method. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated after each removal of factors in the final combined models. Radiographic factors and high-sensitive C reactive protein did not end up in any model with change factors only. AUC value (SD) of the final obtained model of change factors was 0.70 (0.01). Adding newly defined factors to previously published models significantly (p<0.0001) increased the AUC value to 0.75 (0.01). Final diagnostic criteria, consisting only of the factors obtained through history taking and physical examination, were able to detect early-stage hip OA associated with clinically relevant hip OA 5-10 years later, with 'moderate' precision.