Evaluation and regulation strategy for ecological security in the Tarim river basin based on the ecological footprint

Population growth, oasis expansion, and increased consumption of water and fossil energy pose a significant threat to the ecological security of the Tarim River Basin (TRB). However, single-factor assessments and traditional ecological footprint models limit the ability to compare ecological security across prefectures, and existing studies neglected renewable resources in the ecological security regulation strategies. This study constructed TRB's ecological footprint accounts, analyzed the status of the sustainable development of the watershed in combination with the landscape ecological risk index, and explored the strategies and feasibility of watershed ecological security regulation based on multi-objective planning and multi-scenario simulation. The results are as follows: 1) the ecological deficit of the basin has expanded by approximately 1.79 times since the beginning of 21st century, with the eastern part of the basin being at higher ecological risk. Overall, the annual decrease in per capita ecological carrying capacity was 0.85%, while the annual increase in per capita ecological footprint was 32.35%. 2) Fossil energy dominates the inter-annual variation in the ecological footprint of the watershed; its contributions to the total ecological footprint significantly increased from 9.55% to 71%. 3) On the basis of increasing crop yields and optimizing cropping structure, fully utilizing solar energy resources, increasing cultivated land by 15% or reducing fossil energy by 50% will improve the ecological security of the watershed. This study represents an important supplement to ecological security assessments of inland river basins in extreme arid regions, such as the TRB, and provides insights into ecological security regulation and sustainable socioeconomic development in such regions.