Dynamic simulation and prediction of urban growth in Shenyang City

Based on remote sensing and GIS,SLEUTH model,a well-known cellular automata model,was applied to simulate urban development between 1988 and 2004 in Shenyang city.Future urban development was projected out to 2030 assuming two different urban development scenarios:(1) current trends development,(2) urban growth considering regional exploitation polices and urban planning.The results show urban growth area would be up to 306.0 km2 and 172.7 km2 in 2030,and urban area accounted for 22.1% and 18.3% of total land area under the two urban growth scenarios,respectively.The more dispersed urban development pattern was produced under the current trends scenario,which allows the continuous expansion of the surrounding towns.Under the regional exploitation policies and urban planning scenario,however,the compact growth pattern shows the control and guide action of future regional development and preservation policies and urban planning.