Modelling women’s team line-ups based on effectiveness and quality

Understanding how different player rotations may impact team performance allows basketball coaches to select effective line-ups for specific tactical scenarios. The study aimed to i) assess how different line-ups or player combinations impact a team's game performance; ii) explore the variations in line-up utilization among different national women's basketball teams; and iii) examine how the offensive efficiency of each line-up evolves during the game. Data from 3,387 ball possessions in 23 international women's basketball games were collected across four major competitions over six years. Offensive and defensive ratings, along with other features, were calculated. Then, a Markov chain model distinguished overperforming and underperforming line-ups of Chinese women's basketball team, determining long-term probabilities for each rating level. The results indicated that i) the most dominant offensive line-up of the Chinese women's basketball team, is PG-G-SF-PF-C, while G-G-F-PF-PF had the highest defensive rating; and ii) US and Australian women's basketball teams favour using line-ups with three guards, while the Chinese women's basketball team heavily relies on centre players. These results offer valuable insights for coaches regarding the performance of different line-ups in FIBA Female Basketball Competitions, optimizing line-up performance and aiding talent selection and recruitment at the international level.