Health risks and economic losses from cold spells in China

Cold significantly increases the risk of mortality. However, the health risks associated with cold spells, persistent and extreme cold temperature events, have yet to be investigated in detail.Meteorological and mortality data was collated from 280 counties in China from 2013 through 2019. GLM (Generalized Linear Models) was used to calculate county-level exposure-response relationships for nine different cold spell definitions. Next, we estimated the exposure-response associations between cold spells and mortality in national, Southern, and Northern China. Based on exposure-response relationships, along with the population and mortality data, we then calculated the number of excess deaths due to the cold spell of 2839 counties across China in 2018. Then, we calculated the loss of VSL (value of a statistical life) in each province.We identified that P5day7 was the cold spell definition that was associated with the highest health in China. Compared with non-cold spell days, the risk of non-accidental mortality, circulatory mortality, and respiratory mortality, on cold spell days increased by 17.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.8%, 19.0%), 20.8% (95%CI: 18.8%, 23.0%), and 22.7% (95%CI: 19.5%, 25.9%) respectively at lag 7 day in the South. In the North, the risk increased by 13.0% (95% CI: 11.0%, 15.0%), 13.8% (95% CI: 11.4%, 16.2%), and 21.0% (95% CI: 16.6%, 25.6%), respectively. The number of related deaths in China were 57,783, 29,827, and 10,922. The corresponding VSLs were 229,195, 118,322, and 43,315 million CNY (Chinese Yuan), thus accounting for 0.25%, 0.13%, and 0.05% of national GDP (Gross Domestic Product).Cold spells have caused a severe epidemiological and economic burden in China. South China should pay more attention to the health risks associated with cold spells.