Dynamic characteristics and impacts of ecosystem service values under land use change: A case study on the Zoigê plateau, China

The accurate assessment of ecosystem service value (ESV) changes driven by land use is the key to land remediation planning and ecologically sustainable development. The Zoigê Plateau is a typical ecologically fragile area in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. In recent years, human activities and economic development have put tremendous pressure on the land and ecological environment in the region. To quantitatively assess the ESV of the Zoigê Plateau, this study accounted for, analysed and predicted the ESV of the study area based on the land use change pattern of the Zoigê Plateau from 2000 to 2020 using dynamic attitude analysis, the equivalent factor accounting method, correlation analysis and the Patch-level Land Use Simulation model (PLUS). The results showed that the ESV was 150.4 billion, 157.28 billion and 156.54 billion CNY in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively, with a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. The interaction between ecosystem services had a significant impact on the spatial distribution of ESV. Based on predictions made by the PLUS model for multiple scenarios, different scenarios resulted in different ESV change trends and, from 2020 to 2030, the ESV continued to decline under the natural development and urban construction scenarios. The ESV value was the smallest under the urban construction scenario, while the ESV continued to increase under the ecological protection scenario. This study demonstrated how dynamically ESV responded to land use change, which is crucial for improving both the ecological service function and the spatial pattern of the land of the Zoigê Plateau.