Causal relationships in longitudinal observational data: An integrative modeling approach.

Much research in psychology relies on data from observational studies that traditionally do not allow for causal interpretation. However, a range of approaches in statistics and computational sciences have been developed to infer causality from correlational data. Based on conceptual and theoretical considerations on the integration of interventional and time-restrainment notions of causality, we set out to design and empirically test a new approach to identify potential causal factors in longitudinal correlational data. A principled and representative set of simulations and an illustrative application to identify early-life determinants of cognitive development in a large cohort study are presented. The simulation results illustrate the potential but also the limitations for discovering causal factors in observational data. In the illustrative application, plausible candidates for early-life determinants of cognitive abilities in 5-year-old children were identified. Based on these results, we discuss the possibilities of using exploratory causal discovery in psychological research but also highlight its limits and potential misuses and misinterpretations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).