The predicted persistence of cobalt in lithium-ion batteries

Cobalt, widely used in the layered oxide cathodes needed for long-range electric vehicles (EVs), has been identified as a key EV supply bottleneck. Many reports have proposed that nickel-rich, cobalt-free cathodes can—in addition to supply chain benefits—herald significant increases in energy density and reductions in EV cost if they can be stabilized. Here we present a contrasting viewpoint. We show that cobalt’s thermodynamic stability in layered structures is essential in enabling access to higher energy densities without sacrificing performance or safety, effectively lowering battery costs per kWh despite increasing raw material costs. We additionally show that the supply growth required to support intermediate cobalt content cathodes for 1.3 billion EVs by 2050 is within historical trends for major industrial metals—although supply concentration in challenging jurisdictions is likely to remain a problem. We predict that these techno-economic factors will drive the continued use of cobalt in nickel-based EV batteries.