Escaping from pollution: Air pollution and the settlement intentions of floating migrants in Chinese cities

Abstract Understanding the mechanisms underlying floating migrants’ settlement intentions is vital for guiding evidence-based policies for China’s urbanisation and regional economic development. While prior studies have identified various determinants of migrants’ settlement decisions, little attention has been paid to the effects of environmental pollution on these decisions. To fill this gap, this study utilises a unique data set combining individual-level data from a national survey and city-level data obtained from various sources to investigate the effects of air pollution on floating migrants’ settlement intentions in China. Using a novel instrumental variable, our regression results show significantly negative impacts of air pollution on both migrants’ permanent settlement intention and their expected length of settlement. Additionally, these impacts are stronger for the skilled migrants compared to the less skilled ones. These findings imply that environmental pollution should be seriously considered when promoting urbanisation in China and beyond.