Weather effects and their long-term impact on the distribution of agricultural yields: evidence from Italy

This paper examines the effects of weather on the distribution of agricultural yields. Using data on wheat and corn yields from seven Italian provinces over the period 1900–2014, a quantile autoregression model is estimated to analyse the dynamic evolution of yield distributions. We find that weather effects are asymmetric, with much larger impacts on the lower tail of the yield distribution than the upper tail. The analysis also shows slow dynamic adjustments. This indicates that adverse weather has significant and persistent effects on agricultural productivity.