The ROK-US Alliance and the Future of US Forces in South Korea

During the Cold War, it was “convergent interest” that supported the ROK-US alliance. However, in the new circumstances, in which the former USSR collapsed, and with it the major external enemy to challenge US supremacy, the ROK-US alliance formed in the Cold War had to be redefined in accordance with the strategic environment of the 21st century. After the Cold War, there were largely three directions as to how the alliance should proceed. However, the only realistic format is the “redefinition” scenario, based on maintenance of the ROK-US alliance. There can be three aspects to the scenario redefinition. The first is “strengthening the alliance,” the second is “flexibility of the alliance,” and the third is “political alliance without US forces.” The first scenario is more of “reassurance of the alliance” than of “redefinition of the alliance,” in the sense that its purpose is to maintain the Cold War alliance in the post-Cold War era. The second and third scenarios can herald “transformation of the ROK-US alliance,” in that it seeks to transform the nature of the existing alliance. Considering the new military strategy being pursued by the United States, it is believed to be not easy to present a clear direction for revising the ROK- US alliance. Whereas the United States is strengthening its alliances worldwide, the new Korean administration is maintaining a policy of moving toward a pliable alliance. So, at some point in time a clash between two opposing streams of thought on this issue is inevitable. But, if advantage is taken of the fact that the new US military strategy is developed into reduction of armed forces in the frontline, it will be possible with better efforts to develop the alliance relationship in a pliable way without damaging the traditional friendly relationship.