Prognostic role of minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production slope for perioperative morbidity and long-term survival in resectable patients with nonsmall-cell lung cancer: a prospective study using propensity score overlap weighting

BACKGROUND: The role of minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production ( / CO 2 ) slope, a ventilation efficiency marker, in predicting short-term and long-term health outcomes for patients with nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) undergoing lung resection has not been well investigated. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study consecutively enrolled NSCLC patients who underwent a presurgical cardiopulmonary exercise test from November 2014 to December 2019. The association of / CO 2 slope with relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and perioperative mortality was evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards and logistic models. Covariates were adjusted using propensity score overlap weighting. The optimal cut-off point of the E/ CO 2 slope was estimated using the receiver operating characteristics curve. Internal validation was completed through bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: A cohort of 895 patients [median age (interquartile range), 59 (13) years; 62.5% male] was followed for a median of 40 (range, 1-85) months. Throughout the study, there were 247 relapses or deaths and 156 perioperative complications. The incidence rates per 1000 person-years for relapses or deaths were 108.8 and 79.6 among patients with high and low E/ CO 2 slopes, respectively [weighted incidence rate difference per 1000 person-years, 29.21 (95% CI, 7.30-51.12)]. A E/ CO 2 slope of greater than or equal to 31 was associated with shorter RFS [hazard ratio for relapse or death, 1.38 (95% CI, 1.02-1.88), P =0.04] and poorer OS [hazard ratio for death, 1.69 (1.15-2.48), P =0.02] compared to a lower / CO 2 slope. A high E/ CO 2 slope increased the risk of perioperative morbidity compared with a low E/ CO 2 slope [odds ratio, 2.32 (1.54-3.49), P <0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with operable NSCLC, a high E/ CO 2 slope was significantly associated with elevated risks of poorer RFS, OS, and perioperative morbidity.