Gentrification outcomes of greening in different urbanization stages: A longitudinal analysis of Chinese cities, 2012–2020

Green-space-triggered gentrification, wherein original residents are displaced by wealthier individuals owing to the creation of new green spaces, has been criticized for exacerbating environmental injustice. While previous studies have explored green-space-triggered gentrification in individual cities, few have examined heterogeneities across multiple cities, especially in developing countries where cities are at different stages of expansion. The roles of green space in different stages of urbanization can produce varying outcomes of gentrification. This study investigated the relationship between green space and gentrification in Chinese cities from 2012 to 2020. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance to adjacent parks, and area of adjacent parks were used as indicators of green space, while nighttime lights and residential land prices were used as proxies for gentrification. Nationwide analyses indicated that both increasing NDVI and building new parks nearby could lead to gentrification, but the park area had a marginal effect. Stratified analyses further showed that the effect of green space on gentrification was related to the different roles of green space associated with the stage of urbanization. Cities with higher urbanization rates were more affected by NDVI but less affected by park distance. Our findings provide insights for urban planners and decision-makers on developing localized strategies that mitigate the varying outcomes of gentrification at different stages of urban development.