Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires

ABSTRACT More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events. As fuel stock, the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics, however is not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021% (∼2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires.