Integrating ecosystem service supply–demand and ecological risk assessment for urban planning: A case study in Beijing, China

The balance between ecosystem service supply–demand and landscape ecological risk are two crucial aspects influencing the sustainable development of regional ecosystems. Current evaluations ignore these aspects and lead to partial landscape planning in urban areas. As a result, a framework was built for regional planning in urban areas based on multidimensional evaluations of ecosystems for high-efficiency land use planning. First, to determine the ecosystem service balance in regional scale, the supply and demand of five ecosystem services were quantified—biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water conservation, food production, and landscape recreation. Second, landscape ecological risks were identified using the “natural–social–landscape” research framework combined with spatial principal component analysis. Third, spatial clustering analysis of ecosystem service supply–demand ratios and landscape ecological risks was then performed through spatial autocorrelation, which aimed to identify areas for protection and restoration priority. Finally, GeoDetector was used to determine the main factors influencing ecosystem service balance and landscape ecological risks and develop targeted planning measures. The results revealed an imbalance in total ecosystem service supply–demand in Beijing's plain area, coupled with a high level of landscape ecological risk. The combined ecosystem service supply–demand ratios exhibited a significant negative correlation and aggregation with landscape ecological risk, and the significant area accounted for approximately 31.9% of the total area. Priority areas for protection and restoration accounted for 10.39% and 19.94%, respectively, of the total regional area. Land use, distance to settlements, and vegetation cover were the primary environmental variables influencing the distributions of the combined ecosystem service supply–demand ratios and landscape ecological risk. So, this study emphasizes the need to strengthen intensive land use and prevent the uncontrolled expansion of urban land and settlements. It is crucial to enhance urban green infrastructure construction, promote the development of biodiversity-friendly agriculture, and implement measures such as afforestation restoration to increase regional vegetation cover. Overall, by integrating a framework of ecosystem services and landscape ecological risk, a comprehensive scientific reference can be provided for the efficient land use and sustainable development planning in urban areas.