Integrating Ecosystem Services into Urban Carbon Dynamics: A Dual-Scale Spatial Analysis of Land Use, Emissions, and Planning

Integrating ecosystem services into urban planning requires analytical tools that connect spatial land-use data with environmental performance. This paper applies a multi-scale, data-driven approach to assess urban carbon dynamics using spatial units that reflect both ecological functions and planning relevance. The study examines the Reggio Calabria Functional Urban Area (FUA) in Southern Italy, using Copernicus Urban Atlas land-use data to characterize spatial patterns and estimate CO2 emissions and sequestration using parameters derived from established literature and institutional sources. A Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) identifies land uses with direct and spillover effects, revealing how spatial organization shapes urban carbon outcomes. Results reveal a net emission imbalance of approximately 1.85 billion kg CO2 per year, confirming the region’s role as a net emitter. Transport corridors and discontinuous low-density urban areas show the strongest positive SDM coefficients (+3.48 and +0.78 kg CO2 m−2 yr−1, respectively). Forests and agricultural lands show negative effects, indicating potential sequestration functions, though not statistically significant. This suggests that natural and semi-natural land uses contribute little to measurable CO2 reduction within the FUA. Emissions and sinks display a polarized spatial pattern, with coastal urban zones acting as hotspots and inland areas serving as potential sinks. These findings underscore the need to strengthen ecological connectivity and integrate green infrastructure within dense urban areas to enhance mitigation capacity. The proposed framework shows how spatially explicit, hierarchical analysis can bridge ecosystem services and urban planning, offering a replicable basis for data-informed, climate-responsive strategies.