Trend Analysis of Global, Regional, and National Burdens of Visual Impairment Due to Refraction Disorders from 1990 to 2021: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Purpose To estimate the global, regional, and national burden of vision impairment due to refraction disorders (RD) from 1990 to 2021 based on sex, age, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and to predict future disease trends. Methods This retrospective demographic analysis utilized data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), and age-standardized YLDs rates (ASYR) of RD from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed to assess temporal, age, and sex-specific trends. We calculated the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) to determine changes in prevalence and YLDs and used the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to forecast the disease burden of RD from 2020 to 2035. Results ASPR and ASYR declined from 1990 to 2021, the AAPC is -3.76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -4.20~-3.32) and − 0.26 (95% CI: -0.28~-0.25), respectively. In 2021, the global prevalence RD was 159,765,917 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 142,526,915 ~ 178,698,348). The prevalence was slightly higher in females than in males, with a higher disease burden among middle-aged and elderly populations. There is a slight negative correlation in regional ASPR (r≈-0.32, P < 0.001), with South Asia exhibiting the highest ASPR (3,398/100,000 people [95% UI: 2992 ~ 3860]). The global prevalence of RD is predicted to increase, while the ASPR is expected to decrease from 2022 to 2035. Conclusion Global prevalence of RD has increased in the past 30 years and is predicted to continue increasing over the next 15 years. There was a heavier burden among females, middle-aged, and elderly populations.