Strict COVID-19 lockdown and popular regime support in China

In response to the COVID-19 crisis, China implemented lockdown measures that were the most stringent and enduring in the world. This study conducts the first systematic analysis of how China's historic COVID-19 lockdown impacted popular support for the authoritarian regime. I argue that strict lockdowns have differential effects on popular regime support depending on their duration. A relatively short lockdown signals to citizens the state's resolution and capacity to protect them from threats, thereby increasing their support. Long-lasting restrictions, however, cause excessive harm to their victims and ultimately turn the citizenry against the state. I utilize people's varying exposure to the lockdown measures and two rounds of original surveys to provide evidence for the theory. The study contributes to our understanding of the effectiveness of authoritarian rule in managing major crises and highlights the role that fear and coercion play in maintaining authoritarian stability.