Energy rebound effect in belt and road initiative countries: space-time evolution and influencing mechanisms

Green development provides a strong background for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). To reasonably control losses caused by the energy rebound effect, the Data Envelopment Analysis method and panel regression model were used in this study to analyze this effect, its space-time evolution, and the influencing mechanisms of BRI countries. The results follow: (1) from 2007 to 2017, the energy rebound effect was generally present in countries, with most experiencing a "partial rebound" state; (2) economic development had a nonlinear "inverted U-shaped" impact on the energy rebound effect; (3) reducing energy intensity led to a decrease in the energy rebound effect, while the industrial structure, opening-up level, and foreign investment levels indirectly influenced the effect by influencing energy intensity. Thus, BRI countries should optimize infrastructure development and energy structures to promote green development with lower energy rebound effects.